Russia and Belarus conduct military exercise near border with Poland

Russia and Belarus have kicked off a large joint military exercise in regions bordering NATO this Friday (12), amid increasing tensions with the Western alliance, two days after Poland shot down Russian drones that crossed the country’s airspace. The ‘Zapad-2025’ exercise, a show of force by Russia and its ally Belarus, is taking place at training grounds in both countries, including near the Polish border. The exercise was scheduled well before the drone incident, which marked the first known time a NATO member has fired at Russian targets in the three-and-a-half-year war. What will the exercises involve? The Russian Defense Ministry stated that, in the first phase of the exercise, troops will simulate repelling an attack against Russia and Belarus, whose alliance is known as the Union State. The second phase will focus on ‘restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and crushing the enemy, including with the participation of a group of coalition forces from friendly states,’ the ministry explained. Belarus borders three NATO members—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—to the west, and with Ukraine to the south. The Russian government stated on Friday (12) that European concerns about the exercises were an emotional response based on hostility toward Russia. The Kremlin declined to comment on this week’s drone incident, viewed in the West as a warning to NATO and a test for its responses. Western countries labeled the drone episode as a deliberate provocation by Russia, which Moscow denied. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that their devices carried out an attack in western Ukraine at the time, but had no plans to target any entities in Poland. The U.S. President Donald Trump said that the Russian drone incursion might have been a mistake. ‘I’m not happy about anything having to do with the whole situation, but hopefully that’ll all get straightened out,’ he told reporters on Thursday (11). Poland on high alert Even before the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the upcoming ‘Zapad’ maneuvers as ‘very aggressive’ and announced that Poland would close the border with Belarus at midnight on Thursday (11). Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk stated that Poland had been preparing for many months and conducting their own exercises, code-named ‘Iron Defender.’ ‘There are about 30,000 soldiers in the Iron Defender exercise and about 5,000 on the border’ with Belarus, Tomczyk said in response to questions from Reuters news agency. Lithuania also said it was guarding its own border due to the military exercise. Belarus’s Chief of the General Staff, Major-General Pavel Muraveiko, stated that all exercises would be held at a ‘significant distance’ from the borders with NATO members and Ukraine. He mentioned that the exercises would include drones, electronic warfare, and the use of artificial intelligence to support decision-making. The last Zapad exercises took place in September 2021, five months before Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, partly launched from Belarusian territory. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and supported him throughout the war, though without committing his own troops to the conflict. Belarus has allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear missiles on its territory and is preparing to receive Moscow’s new hypersonic missile, the Oreshnik. Lukashenko is simultaneously seeking to restore relations with the United States after years of American and European Union sanctions.