Research tests Michelle and Tarcísio in the race against Lula in 2026; see the results

In the first scenario, Lula (PT) leads with 48.2%, followed by Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) with 30.4%. The second scenario portrays Lula (PT) with 50.2% against Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) with 33%. Even though convicted and ineligible, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears in a third scenario tested by AtlasIntel. The survey data was collected between September 10th, a day before Bolsonaro’s sentencing to 27 years and 3 months in prison, and September 14th, three days after the sentence from the Supreme Federal Court’s First Panel.

The survey also examined a scenario where Lula is not the PT candidate in 2026. In this case, Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad is listed as the replacement, facing Tarcísio de Freitas instead of Jair Bolsonaro. The research, done in partnership with Bloomberg, included 7,291 interviews conducted online through random digital recruitment. The margin of error is one percentage point.