New research tests Lula, Tarcísio, and Michelle for 2026; see the results

A survey by Paraná Pesquisas released on Tuesday, the 11th, tested five first-round scenarios and four second-round scenarios for the 2026 presidential election. Lula (PT) is numerically ahead of all potential opponents. The institute interviewed 2,020 voters in 164 municipalities across 26 states and the Federal District between last Thursday, the 6th, and Monday, the 10th. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%. Although Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears in the survey, he is ineligible due to two convictions in the Superior Electoral Court. Furthermore, the Supreme Federal Court’s ruling against the former president for leading the attempted coup could make him ineligible until 2060. Based on the Clean Record Law, someone convicted by a collegiate judicial decision is prohibited from running for elections for eight years after serving the sentence. Here are the results of the first-round surveys: Scenario 1: Lula (PT): 35.6% Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 32.1% Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 8.2% Ratinho Junior (PSD): 6.9% Ronaldo Caiado (União): 3.2% Romeu Zema (Novo): 2.7% Blank/Null: 6.6% Do not know/No Opinion: 4.7% Scenario 2: Lula (PT): 36.3% Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 19.7% Ratinho Junior (PSD): 10.5% Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 9.9% Ronaldo Caiado (União): 5.2% Romeu Zema (Novo): 4.8% Blank/Null: 8% Do not know/No Opinion: 5.6% Scenario 3: Lula (PT): 36% Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 26% Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 9.1% Ratinho Junior (PSD): 8.4% Ronaldo Caiado (União): 4.9% Romeu Zema (Novo): 3.9% Blank/Null: 6.8% Do not know/No Opinion: 4.9% Scenario 4: Lula (PT): 36% Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos): 23.2% Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 9.7% Ratinho Junior (PSD): 9% Ronaldo Caiado (União): 4.5% Romeu Zema (Novo): 3.3% Blank/Null: 8.4% Do not know/No Opinion: 5.9% Scenario 5: Fernando Haddad (PT): 20.6% Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 20.5% Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 14.9% Ratinho Junior (PSD): 11.8% Ronaldo Caiado (União): 5.8% Romeu Zema (Novo): 5.2% Blank/Null: 14.1% Do not know/No Opinion: 7% Check out the second-round scenarios: Scenario 1: Lula (PT): 43.7% Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 43.1% Scenario 2: Lula (PT): 45.4% Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 38.6% Scenario 3: Lula (PT): 44.1% Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 42.7% Scenario 4