Bolsonarism sees wear and tear with Bolsonaro’s arrest, Ramagem’s escape, and Eduardo’s indictment

The bolsonarism faces wear and tear with the arrest of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the escape of deputy Alexandre Ramagem, and the decision that made deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro a defendant. The arrest is a result of all these events. The vigil call and attempt to break the ankle monitor were the main reasons for Bolsonaro’s preventive arrest. However, Minister Alexandre de Moraes’ decision also mentions Ramagem’s escape to the United States and Eduardo’s actions in the same country. The former president’s son became a defendant last week. The Supreme Court’s First Panel accepted the charges against Eduardo Bolsonaro for coercion during the process of the coup plot. The PGR (Attorney General’s Office) states that he sought sanctions against Brazilian authorities and the country itself to try to hinder the criminal action and absolve his father from conviction. ‘Bolsonarism is increasingly isolated and facing difficulties,’ says a political scientist. Leandro Consentino, a professor at Insper, states that recent events are eroding bolsonarism—especially among centrist voters. The abolition of the tariff hike also weakens bolsonarism. According to Luciana Santana, a professor at Ufal (Federal University of Alagoas), Donald Trump’s decision to lift tariffs on hundreds of Brazilian products shows that there should be no more political retaliation from the USA, as promised by Eduardo and allies. Wear and tear can reflect on the 2026 election. For Consentino, this slice of centrist voters, who do not identify with any side, may further distance themselves from bolsonarist candidates. ‘It is not easy to defend this agenda of political persecution when the facts are becoming clearer, when the effects of tariffs damage the Brazilian economy,’ he affirms. On the other hand, the arrest may lead to more unity on the right, according to analysts. ‘This fact ignites the flame, at least in a more radicalized base, of narratives of political persecution and an autocratic justice,’ says Santana. The arrest impacts in a very ambiguous way. It may even become something to unite these supporters more around Bolsonaro’s figure, in this discourse of political persecution, that Bolsonaro is a victim of a plot between the Judiciary and the left. Leandro Consentino, political scientist and professor at Insper Eduardo and Ramagem mentioned in the decision Moraes said that Ramagem and Eduardo left Brazil to evade the law. He connected the ‘strategy of leaving the national territory’ of the two with the indications of the former president’s fleeing attempt, characterized by the attempt to break the electronic ankle monitor. Ramagem is still on the run. Moraes ordered the arrest of the parliamentarian, convicted in the coup plot process, after a request from the Federal Police. A report published by the PlatôBR website showed the deputy in a luxury condominium in Miami, United States, with his wife. He left the country clandestinely in September. According to UOL columnist Carla Araújo, the investigation indicates that the deputy would have left the country through Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima, and went to the United States ‘possibly through Venezuela or Guyana.’ In the decision, the minister also classified Eduardo’s actions as pathetic. ‘First, one of the sons of the leader of the criminal organization, Eduardo Bolsonaro, criminally and treacherously conspires against the country itself, even abandoning his parliamentary mandate,’ he said.