Focus Bulletin: Expected Inflation in 2025 Drops for the Fourth Consecutive Week

The market’s financial projections for 2025 indicate a further reduction in expected inflation, with the median IPCA decreasing from 4.43% to 4.40% for the fourth consecutive week, according to the Focus Bulletin released by the Central Bank on Monday (8).
For the exchange rate, the estimate remains at R$ 5.40 per dollar, while the GDP growth expectation rose from 2.16% to 2.25% and the Selic rate was kept at 15% per year.
Inflation (IPCA, IGP-M, and regulated prices)
The projection for the IPCA in 2026 dropped from 4.17% to 4.16% with a third consecutive week decline. In 2027, the projection remained at 3.80% for the fifth week and for 2028, it stayed stable at 3.50% for the fifth consecutive bulletin.
In the IGP-M, the median fell from -0.57% to -0.61% in 2025, a decline observed for 13 weeks. For 2026, the index remains at 4.00% for the second consecutive week, and it stays at 4.00% for 2027 for 47 weeks. In 2028, the projection remained at 3.85%.
In regulated prices inflation, the projection for 2025 rose from 5.18% to 5.25%, an increase maintained for six weeks. For 2026, there was a decrease from 3.80% to 3.76% in the first week of decline, while in 2027, it dropped from 3.65% to 3.60%. In 2028, the median remained at 3.50%, stable for the second week.
GDP
For 2026, the projection increased from 1.78% to 1.80%, with a weekly rise for the first time. In 2027, the median advanced from 1.83% to 1.84%, and in 2028, the estimates remain at 2.00% for 91 weeks, unchanged.
Exchange rate
The projections for the exchange rate remain unchanged over the last few bulletins. The median for 2025 stays at R$ 5.40 for three weeks, while for 2026, it has been at R$ 5.50 for eight consecutive weeks. For 2027, the rate remains at R$ 5.50 for six weeks, and in 2028, it is stable at R$ 5.50 for six weeks, with no recent revisions.
Selic
For 2026, the Focus raised the expectation from 12.00% to 12.25% last week, in the first upward revision. In 2027, the projection remains stable at 10.50% for 43 weeks. For 2028, the median remains at 9.50% for the first consecutive week, after a recent revision.