The battle against relegation is heating up in this season of the Brazilian Championship. At least five teams are involved, and the ‘cut-off mark’ for avoiding relegation has increased in 2025. Fortaleza, one of the teams fighting to stay in the league, has a postponed match against Red Bull Bragantino today. If they win, they could further complicate the fight at the bottom of the table. If 44 points were enough to avoid relegation in the past five years, clubs are facing tougher conditions this year, according to data from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
‘The new cut-off mark’
Not even 47 points completely eliminate the chances of relegation. Although not listed on the portal, Santos could still be relegated even if they win all their remaining games. The probability of 0.0005% is rounded to 4 decimal places. Teams with 46 (0.016) and 45 (0.5) points also have probabilities of less than 1%. Starting from 44 points, the chances of relegation increase considerably. Any number below 43 already reflects a probability exceeding 60%. Currently, eight clubs have less than 43 points: Vasco, Ceará, Internacional, Vitória, Santos, Juventude, Fortaleza, and Sport. Sport has already been relegated, while the teams from Ceará (34 points) and Juventude (33) have over an 88% chance of being relegated.
This means there is one spot in the bottom four for five teams. Santos (38 points) and Vitória (39) are the closest to relegation. Both teams need to win at least two of their last three games to have any chance of staying up. Internacional (41), Vasco (42), and Ceará (42) have less than a 10% chance of relegation. In these cases, just one win in three matches will likely secure their place in the league. ‘How the criteria works’
The ‘cut-off marks’ and other observations in this report may be confusing. To shed some light, UOL spoke with Gilcione Nonato, a mathematician who is involved in creating and updating the UFMG predictions. The professional explained the university’s criteria for determining not only the ‘cut-off mark’ but also the probabilities of each club being relegated to Série B. Over four million simulations are conducted, maintaining the profiles of each team.
‘Probabilities are calculated as follows: based on the games played, the profiles of each team are estimated, indicating the frequencies of wins, draws, and losses as hosts and visitors. The weight of each result depends on the opponent’s quality. Winning against a stronger team carries more weight than beating the last-placed team, and conversely, losing to the bottom team carries more weight than losing to the league leader,’ he said before concluding. These profiles are projected onto the upcoming games through millions of simulations. At the end of these simulations, the number of times each team was the champion, qualified for a national or international competition, or relegated is counted. This figure divided by the total number of simulations provides the specific probability. Gilcione Nonato, UFMG mathematician
‘Relegation probabilities’
By club.
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