Datafolha – 2nd round: Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 15 points

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-SP) would be 15 percentage points behind Lula (PT) if the 2026 elections’ second round were held today, according to a Datafolha survey released on Saturday (6).
In the poll, the president also appears to be 5 percentage points ahead of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and 6 percentage points ahead of Governor Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR).
The institute interviewed 2,002 voters aged 16 or over between Tuesday (2) and Thursday (4), with residents from 113 municipalities. The survey’s margin of error is two points plus or minus.
The current survey was conducted one day before the senator and oldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly announced that he had been chosen by his father to be the PL’s candidate for the presidency in 2026.
Here are the numbers:
Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro
Lula (PT): 51% (up from 48% in July)
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (down from 37% in July)
Lula vs. Tarcísio de Freitas
Lula (PT): 47% (up from 45% in July)
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos): 42% (up from 41% in July)
Lula vs. Ratinho Jr.
Lula (PT): 47% (up from 45% in July)
Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 41% (up from 40% in July)
[This report is being updated]
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