Behind the Scenes: Moraes and Army Movements Before Bolsonaro’s Arrest

The movements surrounding the future of former President Jair Bolsonaro have entered a decisive phase, and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is preparing to define, in the coming days, the beginning of the 27-year and three-month sentence imposed on the leader of the coup plot. According to Lauro Jardim, from O Globo newspaper, Minister Alexandre de Moraes has been holding confidential conversations on the subject, including an off-agenda meeting with the Army commander, Tomás Paiva, and the Defense Minister, José Múcio Monteiro, on Monday night (17).
During the meeting, Paiva suggested that sending Bolsonaro to the Papuda prison could be seen as excessive for a former president and offered alternatives in military installations in the country, should closed regime be maintained. However, Moraes “remained non-committal to the offer.”
Bolsonaro’s defense is already working with the concrete possibility that the arrest will be decreed between next Wednesday (26) and Thursday (27). The STF’s First Chamber rejected the declaration appeals presented by the legal team, further reducing the space for new appeals.
In the Federal District government, the forecast is that the sentence’s execution will occur between the end of November and early December, following the accelerated pace adopted by Moraes in the trial of the so-called “crucial core” of the coup plot.
The publication of the judgment is scheduled for Tuesday (18). The five-day deadline for filing new appeals begins on Wednesday (19), precisely the day Bolsonaro is expected to receive a prayer group of 16 people at home. The deadline formally ends on Sunday (23), but it is likely to be automatically extended to Monday (24), as provided for in the Criminal Procedure Code.
The defense is preparing for infringing appeals, but allies of the former president admit that it is likely Moraes will repeat the stance taken in Fernando Collor’s case: immediately reject the appeal and order the sentence to be executed promptly.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s physical whereabouts are still under evaluation. The cell at the 19th Military Police Battalion of the Federal District, known as “Papudinha,” is currently the most likely location to receive him.
Convicted for attempting a coup d’état after the 2022 elections, the former president may serve his sentence in a unit that has already housed politicians and former ministers, like Geddel Vieira Lima. The space features spacious cells, fans, TV, bunk beds, and even a small pantry.
Moraes’ chief of staff conducted inspections at three locations within the prison complex: the maximum-security block, the 19th BPM, and a renovated wing of Papudinha. Photos attached to a 2023 case show more spacious and structured environments that have undergone recent security-enhancing renovations. The final assessment will depend solely on Moraes, who has yet to signal his decision.