Crystal Ball: Flamengo has a 49% chance of defeating Ceará and confirming Brasileirão title without needing to rely on Palmeiras

The Flamengo fans are eagerly anticipating celebrating another title this Wednesday, when the team faces Ceará at Maracanã. The team could become Brazilian champion for the ninth time in its history. The conquest is very close: with two rounds remaining, the rubro-negro team is five points ahead of Palmeiras, the second-placed team, who will face Atlético-MG at Arena MRV. To celebrate the ninth title without depending on the result in Belo Horizonte, Filipe Luís’s team only needs a victory.
The Crystal Ball data shows that this is the strongest possibility for the match at Maracanã. The tool developed by GLOBO in partnership with UFMG indicates that the Rio de Janeiro team has a 49.38% chance of winning at Maracanã.
The draw appears as the second most likely outcome of the match, with 34.54%. In this case, however, the rubro-negro team will only be champions if Palmeiras also does not win against Atlético-MG.
The least likely result on this Wednesday at Maracanã is Ceará’s victory. Vozão has a 16.06% chance of taking the three points. However, even in this case, the rubro-negro team will be champions as long as Palmeiras does not win.
According to the Crystal Ball, a draw is the most likely result in the match in Belo Horizonte. There is a 40.6% chance of Palmeiras and Atlético ending in a tie. Meanwhile, a victory for the team coached by Abel Ferreira has only a 26% chance.
One win away from winning the Brasileirão after four seasons, Flamengo currently has a 97.2% chance of winning the title, against 2.8% for Palmeiras. If they do not confirm the title against Ceará this Wednesday, the rubro-negro team will still have another opportunity to lift the trophy against Mirassol on Sunday at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.