Crystal Ball: Flamengo is the favorite for the Brasileirão title, but Palmeiras’ favorable path makes the competition tougher

Despite missing the opportunity to extend their lead in the Brazilian Championship by drawing 0-0 with Cruzeiro on Thursday at Maracanã, Flamengo is still three points ahead (55 to 52) of Palmeiras, in second place, and remains the favorite in the Crystal Ball projections, a tool developed by O Globo newspaper in partnership with the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Flamengo has a 45.8% chance of winning the title, while Palmeiras has 41%. Cruzeiro remains third with 12.4%. However, the path for the Paulistas is theoretically more favorable. Of the 13 remaining matches – one more than Flamengo – Abel Ferreira’s team will play seven at home, while the Rubro-Negro will have ‘only’ five. Three of these matches will be against teams currently in the relegation zone (Vitória and two against Juventude, with whom they have a postponed game). Additionally, Palmeiras will face fewer teams from the top 6 compared to their carioca rival: two, Cruzeiro and Mirassol, against four for Flamengo (Bahia, Botafogo, and Mirassol). They are set to face each other on the next day 19th, at Maracanã. The main challenge for Palmeiras in this schedule is the match against Cruzeiro, another direct competitor. The game is scheduled to take place in the middle of the Libertadores’ rounds, when the team, coached by Abel Ferreira, will face LDU-EQU. This way, the team may struggle due to the high physical and mental demands in a short period. Flamengo, also competing in the Libertadores semifinals, is set to face Fortaleza amidst the Racing-ARG matches, but the demands are expected to be lower, as the Northeast team is currently just above the last-place team in the league. This Sunday, both teams will play away matches. While Palmeiras faces São Paulo in a derby at 4 pm at Morumbis Stadium, Flamengo takes on Bahia at 6:30 pm at Fonte Nova Stadium in Salvador. With absences, the coaching staff will need to make changes in the starting lineup, with Danilo and Ayrton Lucas possibly starting. Defender Léo Pereira and left-back Alex Sandro are suspended after receiving their third yellow card in the match against Cruzeiro. Besides the suspensions, the coach may decide to rest other players due to the short period between matches. Today, the team will have the only full squad training before traveling to Salvador.