Crystal Ball: Santos returns to the relegation zone and now has over 50% chance of being relegated in the Brazilian Championship

Santos closed the 32nd round of the Brazilian Championship with worrying statistics. After losing 2-0 to Palmeiras on Thursday night, the team from Vila Belmiro returned to the relegation zone and reached a 50.5% chance of being relegated in the competition. This data was obtained by the Crystal Ball, a tool for predicting Brazilian Championship probabilities, developed by GLOBO in partnership with UFMG. Furthermore, the club has not won a game since mid-October: the last victory was five matches ago, when they defeated Corinthians at home 3-1.

After the match against the team led by Dorival Júnior, Santos’ performance dropped, resulting in losses and draws in the last four games. The decline in quality was evident right in the following match, which was crucial for Neymar’s team to stay out of the relegation zone. In the 29th round of the Brasileirão, Vila’s club lost 1-0 to Vitória, a direct competitor in the fight to avoid relegation. Currently, the Bahia-based team is the last one above the zone and has a 47.8% chance of going down.

The following three games did not bring any relief for Santos. They had two consecutive draws against Botafogo and Fortaleza, and a defeat to Palmeiras on Thursday. While the team led by Juan Pablo Vojvoda was losing, Vitória secured a 1-0 victory against Internacional at Barradão. This result allowed the Bahia team to move up to the 16th position.

This is not the first time Santos has had over 50% chance of relegation. According to the Crystal Ball, the team was at its lowest point in the 8th round, reaching 58.9% probability of relegation, and also struggled in the 11th round with a 52.4% chance of playing in Serie B in 2026.

Despite having less chance of relegation now, Vitória has faced much more concerning statistics than Santos. The club had over 50% chance of going down on several occasions during the competition. From the 25th to the 27th round, the rubro-negro fluctuated between 80.9% and 77.6%.

The other three teams in the relegation zone concluded the 32nd round with even more alarming numbers. Sport is practically confirmed in Serie B next year, with a 99.9% chance of relegation, while Juventude and Fortaleza have accumulated probabilities of 91% and 87.3%, respectively.