Despite the warning caused by Gonet’s Senate vote, Messias remains Lula’s favorite for the STF, say advisors

Despite the close vote in the Senate for the reappointment of Attorney General Paulo Gonet, which raised an alert among government officials, aides of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva say that Attorney General of the Union, Jorge Messias, remains the favorite to be nominated for the vacancy in the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Lula is expected to address the issue again this week before traveling to South Africa for the Brics summit on the 22nd and 23rd. Before announcing the nomination, Lula wants to meet with former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and the Minister of the Union Court of Auditors (TCU) Bruno Dantas, both also considered for the position. Paulo Gonet was reappointed to a new term as AG last week by a vote of 45 to 26, the closest margin since the redemocratization. According to presidential aides, the vote was a direct response to the conduct of the Attorney General in the indictment of former President Jair Bolsonaro in the coup plot case. They also claim that Gonet did not campaign and left the approval process solely in the hands of the Senate President Davi Alcolumbre. Therefore, Messias would have a different path to win the approval of senators, according to assessments by these government figures. The Attorney General of the Union, after being nominated by Lula, is expected to start lobbying in the Senate offices, including to speak with opposition lawmakers. Messias being evangelical is seen in the Palace as an asset to overcome resistance among conservative senators. Like the AG, Lula’s nominee for the STF must be questioned by the CCJ and undergo a vote in the Senate plenary, where at least 41 votes are required for approval. Last week, the government leader in the Chamber, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), stated in Belém that Lula should meet with Pacheco later this week and that he does not see a chance of reversing the choice of Messias: — I sincerely believe that the name has been put forward. I don’t see a reversal — he said. Former Supreme Court Justice Luís Roberto Barroso announced his early retirement on October 9. There was an expectation that Lula would make a rapid decision for the first time in his third term. The two nominations by the president in 2023 took over 50 days (59 for Flávio Dino and 51 for Cristiano Zanin). On October 21, Lula’s plans began to change. After a meeting with Alcolumbre where the Senate President revealed the majority preference for Pacheco, the president postponed the decision to better secure the nomination.