Focus Report: Analysts Further Cut Inflation Projections for 2025

Market projections for inflation and exchange rate this year were revised down on Monday (13), according to the Focus Report released by the Central Bank. The estimate for IPCA fell from 4.80% to 4.72%. The dollar forecast, on the other hand, remained at R$ 5.45, while the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection stood at 2.16%. The forecast for the basic interest rate this year remained at 15%, for the sixteenth consecutive week.

Inflation projections for 2026 remained at 4.28%, while for 2027, the estimate was 3.90%. The 2028 forecast dropped from 3.70% to 3.68%. For IGP-M, the projections for 2025 decreased from 0.96% to 0.95%, and the estimate for 2026 was 4.20%. In 2027, the inflation projection was 4%, while for 2028 it remained at 3.98%.