The market’s projections for inflation in 2025 have decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, according to the Focus Report released by the Central Bank on Monday (11). The estimate for the IPCA for the year dropped from 5.07% to 5.05%. The median estimate for the exchange rate in 2025 was R$ 5.60. The GDP projection also decreased from 2.23% to 2.21%. Meanwhile, the prediction for the basic interest rate for this year remained at 15% for the seventh consecutive week.
Inflation
The projection for inflation next year dropped from 4.43% to 4.41%. For 2027, the estimate is 4.00%, while for 2028, it remained at 3.80%. The projections for the IGP-M in 2025 decreased from 1.33% to 1.28%, and for 2026, it went down from 4.43% to 4.40%. In 2027, the inflation projection was 4%, and for 2028, it was 3.96%. Expectations for administered prices within the IPCA in 2025 remained at 4.71%. Projections for 2026 dropped from 4.19% to 4.17%. For 2027, the estimate was 4.00%, and for 2028, it was 3.72%.
Exchange Rate
The estimate for 2026 was R$ 5.70, and the projection for 2027 also remained at R$ 5.70. For 2028, the projection is R$ 5.70.
GDP
For the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the median projection for 2026 fell from 1.88% to 1.87%. It decreased from 1.95% to 1.93% in 2027. For 2028, the projection has stayed at 2% for 74 weeks.
Selic
The projection for 2026 was 12.50%, while for 2027, it remained at 10.50%. For 2028, the estimate has been 10% for 33 weeks.
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