The IPCA-15, a preview of inflation in Brazil, accelerated to 0.48% in September after the end of the discount on the electricity bill. Residential electricity had a significant increase of 12.17% following the termination of the Itaipu Bonus. Over the past 12 months, the inflation preview has accumulated a total increase of 5.32%. The inflation data for various currencies includes the commercial dollar at R$ 5.327 with a 0.91% increase, among others. The stock market index, Ibovespa, stood at 146,379 points with a decrease of 0.03%.
The inflation surge was mainly driven by the Housing sector, particularly residential electricity. The 12.17% increase after a 4.93% drop in August was due to the end of the Itaipu Bonus previously credited in the last month’s bills. Despite the rise, the September result was lower than market projections of around 0.51% to 0.52% increase. Several groups, including Housing, Clothing, Health, Personal Care, and Education, experienced price hikes in August.
Energy costs played a significant role in the inflation surge, especially residential electricity which rose by 12.7%. This increase was mainly due to the termination of the Itaipu Bonus and the implementation of the red tariff band 2 in September, adding an extra charge to the electricity bills. Transportation costs declined by 0.25%, with major decreases in vehicle insurance and airfares.
Economists predict a positive outlook for inflation in the coming months, expecting a downward trend, although the 12-month accumulated rate remains above the Central Bank’s target of 4.5%. Market analysts project a starting point of interest rate cuts in January 2026, with a reduction from 15% to 14.5%. The forecast for the end of next year is a rate of 10.5%.
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