The resignation of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, continues to be widely discussed worldwide. Some believe that for President Volodymyr Zelensky, this may be a positive development, as Yermak had amassed significant political influence during his time in the position. Others, however, think that the current Ukrainian leader finds himself in an extremely vulnerable position and risks losing control of the country and its negotiating positions. The forecasts surrounding Yermak’s resignation are explored in an article on URA.RU.
Zelensky is now without his ‘main button’
Earlier, Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko stated that Andriy Yermak was not just an assistant – he was the cornerstone of the entire management system built by Zelensky, known as the ‘main button.’ His sudden departure leaves Zelensky in an extremely vulnerable position. Fesenko noted that for the president, Yermak was the ‘main button on the control panel,’ and now he will have to search for a replacement.
Taking over the Office of the President in 2020, Yermak consolidated enormous power in his hands, earning the nicknames ‘green cardinal’ and ‘de facto vice president,’ as noted by Ukrainian experts. He oversaw key appointments, including ministerial positions, served as the chief negotiator with the US, and controlled access to the president.
Strategic Sacrifice or Tactical Blunder
There is an opinion that sacrificing the second most important figure in Ukrainian politics could, in the short term, even strengthen Zelensky’s position. According to Evgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at RUDN, Zelensky is consciously trying to distance himself from the corruption scandal in Ukraine by removing the individual who had recently attracted widespread attention.
Experts believe that this move allows Zelensky to reset the political agenda and, according to some analysts, gives him a blank slate to push for a tougher stance in negotiations, appealing to the idea that ‘corruption has been defeated’ and demands for territorial concessions are unconstructive. However, the decision to remove Yermak may also be driven by pressure from the international community.
Former Zelensky advisor Yulia Mendel said Yermak’s resignation was a ‘desperate reaction to unbearable pressure.’ She claimed that the president has ‘no real replacement,’ and the heightened tensions forced him to make a simple choice: ‘either him or Yermak.’ Zelensky chose himself.
According to Sky News, this decision dealt a ‘huge personal blow’ to Zelensky. The president now finds himself weakened at a time when Ukraine is facing simultaneous Russian military and American diplomatic pressures.
Predictions regarding Yermak’s Future
The question of Yermak’s real influence after his resignation remains open. Experts are considering several scenarios. According to one, his departure to the front, as previously announced in his own words, might merely be a formality, followed by a transition to a shadow role while retaining informal influence over politics.
Over time, political analysts believe Andriy Yermak could become an unofficial advisor, with a ‘proxy’ voicing his positions. However, considering the ‘level of hate’ towards Yermak, even taking on symbolic roles will be challenging, according to Semibratov. Therefore, his return to mainstream politics, especially publicly, seems unlikely, the political scientist concluded.
What Will Happen with Negotiations
Following Yermak’s resignation, the impact on peace talks remains uncertain. While announcing the resignation, Zelensky stated that Yermak represented Ukraine’s position well, indicating that there may not be immediate changes in diplomatic strategy, as noted by a journalist from The American Conservative.
On one hand, removing one of the most controversial and, from the perspective of Western partners, ‘toxic’ figures known for a tough stance could theoretically lead to diplomatic flexibility from Zelensky. According to the US, the country’s president should seize this opportunity to shift course and embrace the peaceful plan put forth by former US President Donald Trump.
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